The steps to Dhuusamareeb 4 & the 2020/21 Election – Analysis

Somalia’s leaders have been in political deadlock in run up to the General Elections on 2021

Following the Dhusamareb 3 conference, which was attended by some of the country’s regional leaders and President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, there are many questions as to what the next step will be, as the conference finished in somewhat disorganised fashion.

Info from the Halane Conference last night

The President of the Federal Republic of Somalia Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo and the Presidents of HirShabelle and Southwest returned to Mogadishu on late Friday afternoon.

As reported by Benaadirtv last night, a meeting between Somali leaders and some international ambassadors led by US Ambassador Donald Yamomoto took place at Mogadishu International Airport on Monday, right after the Somali leaders left Dhusamareeb.

BTV learns that a meeting took place with International Ambassadors inside Aden Abdulle International Airport because there ”needed to be corrected many shortcomings” on Dhuusamareeb III outcome and said they were concerned about what was signed as the plan was for an inclusive outcome. BTV reports that their concern was acknowledged by President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo who said he was ready for ”our brothers who were absent from the conference to have their views included.”

The ambassadors of the international community also expressed great concern on returning of the election agreement to parliament, and made it clear that this was something that President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo could stop to prevent further obstacles. Finally, it was agreed that a fourth plenary session was necessary to draft an agreement for a comprehensive election.

Puntland & Jubaland Federal States

Puntland and Jubaland stated that they welcome the views of the participants of the Dhusamareb 3 conference, but are not represented, and are ready for any inclusive effort to achieve the 2020/21 elections.

Where can the fourth conference take place?

It is not clear yet but it is believed that the fourth meeting to sign the agreement will be held soon and is likely to take place in Mogadishu, after President Farmajo announces the new Prime Minister expected in the coming hours.

Issues that need to be corrected in the Dhusamareb agreement 3?

The participants of the Dhusamareb 3 conference made a great effort to ensure that the overall outcome of the conference was attractive to all parties with key issues standing such as;

  1. That the election will take place on time: this eliminates the long-rumoured extension plan of President Farmajo and the House of the People.
  2. Make the election reasonable and appropriate for the present and the remaining period: this eliminates the electoral law that was previously rejected by some states, which legitimized 4.5.

These two points have in principle brought together all parties involved in the electoral process.

Differences of opinion

The National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC) of Halima Ismael ”Halima Yarey” is administering the election: This contradicts what President Farmajo explained, The election is at the federal level and not at the state level, so the federation should administer it, so the question is, just what did the President take to Dhusamareb?

Could it be politically motivated? Did he suspended the electoral law he signed? it is clear that this is a POLITICAL AGREEMENT and the National Electoral Commission of Halima Yare is leading what is meant to hold elections for a person and a vote.

If With the disappearance of any commission that administers elections through political agreement, the next will be inclusive, according to the division of the technical committee that considered the appropriate type of election in the country.

Indirect election and party affiliation

This seems to be in its own world as it is difficult to understand. The Chairman of the Electoral Commission Halima Yare said earlier in the year that no party has met the criteria as most of them are recognized as interim as some observers say that the reason for this article may be that Puntland and Jubbaland should be excluded from the agreement.

There is a preconceived notion that the party system and indirect elections will be harmonised, which means that when MPs emerge, they will be given 6 months to join the political parties that have officially met the criteria.

Elections take place on one day

This point can also be translated as ”looting seats” and producing MPs who are ready to be elected in one day. This will need technical ability to conduct such a huge task in Somalia bearing in mind with security.

The selection process for the delegates

The Dhusamareb 3 conference added that there is need to select from intellectuals, so it is not known what the criteria for intellectuals are. So, the article requires the fourth conference to provide an accurate understanding and meaning.

Can Parliament be a challenge?

The Dhusamareb 3 agreement contains a clause stating that it should be returned to the House of the People, although signed by the President. This proposal is not from Parliament. they do not need to enter as they have legislation and they have already enacted the election law which has eliminates political agreement.

Some of the challenges to be raised by the parliament to disrupt the agreement will be restoring Banadir region’s 13-member upper house as the agreement is not clear on their representation.

The Speaker of the House of the People

Lawmakers seeking an extension and are now sitting in a vacuum, with two options open to in blocking the deal which President Farmajo has already promised ”they will be the last word.” Or, they will challenge the prime minister and the new government to be built by the President.

It remains to be seen how Parliament will take this political agreement between the Federal Government and the Federal Member States of Somalia.

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